Article published by José Alberto León Alonso in El Día on 01/10/16.
The unemployed registered in the Canary Islands in the INEM in the month of December 2016 amounted to 247,529 people, with a decrease of 1,110 people compared to the previous month and of 13,153 people compared to December 2014. Despite the media importance that is erroneously given to it, the registered unemployment statistic is not very relevant for the analysis of the economic situation, since in practice not all Those seeking work register in employment offices, since public employment agencies hardly participate in the placement of the unemployed, nor do all those registered actively seek employment, since some work in the underground economy and others seek another series of social benefits that require registration.
The variation in the number of Social Security affiliates is relevant to verify the evolution of our labor market. The number of affiliates in the month of December 2015 in the Canary Islands increased by 4,549 people compared to the previous month, and by 24,597 people if compared to the month of December 2014, reaching the figure of 715,077 affiliates. It is a positive fact, although this month is traditionally good for employment in the Canary Islands, with the high season in the tourism sector and the Christmas campaign in commerce.
To avoid seasonal effects, it is best to resort to interannual comparisons, that is, with the same month of the previous year. If we do so, we observe that the interannual growth rate in the number of social security affiliates in our archipelago amounts to 3.56%, and that the employment growth rate begins to decline from the peak reached in May (4.51%) to the current one, although it is still a higher job creation rate than the Spanish rate (3.18%), which remains stable. This decreasing path is clearly visible in the quarterly graph that accompanies these lines. It is very likely that this decrease in the employment growth rate will be accentuated during the first quarter of 2016, since the Christmas campaign has been exceptional and many of the jobs created will be lost after it.
In Spain as a whole, Social Security contributors have increased by 85,314 people in December. In that month, Social Security affiliates rose to 17,308,400, 3.18% more than in December 2014. In seasonally adjusted terms, those that eliminate distortions in the work calendar, those registered in Social Security increased by 62,700 people compared to the previous month. December is a seasonally bad month for employment and the economy nationwide, so the fact that affiliates still grow is good news. In fact, this month of December has been the best in the entire historical series and has a positive sign for the third consecutive year. Never, in all of democracy, except in the three-year period from 2013 to 2015, had the number of Social Security affiliates grown in December.
With sporadic negative data, it seems that the pace of job creation is stabilizing between 3.16% and 3.19% year-on-year, since there have already been five consecutive months in which Security affiliation has increased between those percentages, which are not bad. In December the interannual growth rate grows in industry, where it goes from 2.7% to 2.8%, and in agriculture, 1.6% instead of 1.3%. Services remain at 3.3%, and construction is reduced from 4.2% to 3.7%. With these data, Social Security has gained 533,186 contributors in the last twelve months, its largest increase since 2006. At this rate, the decade would close with a membership level almost at the pre-crisis level, but everything indicates that such high employment growth will not be repeated. Thus, an exceptional year for employment ends.
The growth of GDP and employment has peaked. The year 2016 will perform worse due to the exhaustion of the main stimulus measures. The positive external effects (low oil prices and monetary stimuli from the European Central Bank) will tend to weaken as the quarters go by in the absence of economic reforms or new stimuli from abroad. And the political blockade ensures the absence of reforms or, even worse, the reversal of those carried out. Hence, a gentle downward slope is expected in both growth and employment. Our estimates for 2016 predict growth in the Canarian and Spanish economy of around 2.8% and the creation of some 400,000 jobs throughout Spain. Even less if there are new external shocks or a permanent political blockade in our country.
