Covid-19 Special (Report No. 100)
The health crisis caused by COVID-19 has filtered through the capacity of health systems. Faced with this risk, governments have opted for confinement and paralysis of part of the economy. At the beginning of the health crisis in Spain, and even in full swing throughout March and early April, estimates of the impact on the economy were relatively tenuous depending on the amount of GDP affected and the duration of the restrictive measures around mobility and the economy.
KEYS
As time has passed, reports from the IMF, worldwide and from the CEOE for Spain, raised the tone drastically, where falls in Spanish GDP between 5% and 9% were proposed in 2020.
A report from Corporación 5 in mid-March already warned that in the Canary Islands, the most optimistic scenario led to a 10% drop in GDP, which means the biggest decline since we have data, leaving something very clear: the most affected sector will be tourism, being the one that will take the longest to recover.
FORECASTS
It is worth remembering that there is already a virus in the economy: E Covid 20, which will infect all sectors. In fact, the average scenario considered in this report estimates that, on average in 2020, GDP in the Canary Islands may decrease by 25.05%, reaching an unemployment rate of 39.08%. Therefore, each level of government must prepare its reactivation plan adapted and agreed upon to this new reality, which is nothing like what was planned.
REPORT
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