The negative impact on the economy as a consequence of the COVID-19 health crisis has been permanent throughout 2020. This last quarter of the year continues to present high uncertainty, given the latest outbreaks of the pandemic, and the implementation, once again, of restrictions on mobility, not only on a regional scale, but also nationally and internationally. Given this scenario, there has been a repeated slowdown during the fourth quarter in those economic activities with the greatest relative weight (hospitality, commerce, other services, etc.), with the consequent knock-on effects on all sectors of the economy.
KEYS
In the case of the Canary Islands, there are three determining areas that will mark the future of the economic recovery (or lack thereof) throughout 2021: the evolution of the pandemic itself and the need for new restrictive measures (both in the Archipelago and in the main emitting countries); the degree of compliance, effectiveness and feasibility of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in the first half of 2021 and, finally, the evolution (positive or negative) of the air connectivity of the islands (and of the sector as a whole).
FORECASTS
Based on the predictive model, and on the quantification and evolution of the different macro and microeconomic magnitudes, we propose for the Canary Islands a forecast for the end of 2020 of a drop in GDP of 20.5%, taking into account the coefficient of employment intensity and evolution of the occupation, as well as the people who continue in an ERTE, after having closed the year with an unemployment rate of 25.22%, mainly due to the evolution of the active population and the occupied population. Currently, with respect to the Canary Islands, if we incorporate the people affected by an ERTE into the EPA data from the fourth quarter of the year - latest data available (79,206 people) -, and taking into consideration the definition of unemployment - wanting to work and not being able to do so -, the adjusted unemployment rate for 2020 would be 32.37%, offering figures incompatible with a cohesive society.
REPORT
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