Eurostat reports a reduction in eurozone inflation, which marks the lowest value of the year driven by a fall in energy prices.
Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, has estimated that annual inflation in the euro area will be 1.8% in September 2024, which represents a decrease from the 2.2% recorded in August. This decrease reflects a slowing trend in price increases, with notable variations in the main components of inflation, such as services, energy and food.
Of the components influencing eurozone inflation, services continue to have the highest year-on-year rate, reaching 4.0% in September, although this shows a slight reduction compared to 4.1% in August. Food products, alcohol and tobacco, the second most important component, showed a slight increase in the year-on-year rate to 2.4%, from 2.3% in August. Non-energy industrial goods were stable at 0.4%, while energy saw a significant drop from -3.0% to -6.0%, a key factor in the overall decline in annual inflation.
Inflation in Member States
Inflation varies considerably between eurozone countries. Some countries, such as Germany and France, have recorded lower inflation, with estimated annual rates of 1.8% and 1.5% respectively. In contrast, other countries show higher figures: in Slovakia, annual inflation remains at 2.9%, while Greece registers 3.0%. These values reflect differences in national factors, such as the cost of services and goods, or dependence on energy products.
Influence Factors: Energy as a Decisive Element
The sharp drop in energy prices continues to be one of the main factors influencing the decline in inflation in the eurozone. Energy has shown a year-on-year variation of -6.0%, accelerating its decline from the -3.0% recorded in August. This is partly explained by adjustments in energy rates and low demand in some countries, which has made it possible to contain the impact of energy on the general consumer price index.
Schedule and Expectations
The preliminary estimate of inflation is an initial measure that is published at the end of each reference month. For September 2024, full Harmonized Consumer Price Indices (HICP) data will be available on October 17. The annual change indicates how the prices of goods and services have changed in a year, while the monthly change measures the change in prices from one month to the next.
With these data, it can be seen that inflation in the euro area has been moderating over recent months. The slowdown trend is expected to continue based on the stabilization of energy prices and the containment in the prices of non-energy goods, which provides a more favorable outlook for the end of 2024.
