He Business Cycle Clock (BCC) Eurostat is a tool that illustrates the different phases of the economic cycle of the euro area through a clock-shaped graph. It represents the empirically observed sequence of turning points in economic, growth and acceleration cycles. Its indications are based on three synthetic indicators: the Growth Cycle Coincident Indicator (GCCI), he Business Cycle Coincident Indicator (BCCI) and the Acceleration Cycle Coincident Indicator (ACCI), all of them experimental in nature.
Indications from the Business Cycle Clock for the euro area
According to the latest measurements, the eurozone economy remains in a deceleration phase, with growth slowing from February 2024.
This economic cooling is confirmed with an analysis that covers up to third quarter of 2024, identifying the peak of the growth cycle in the fourth quarter of 2022. The current slowdown is mainly due to the contraction of the industrial sector, while the services sector continues to expand. Economic conditions continue to be marked by a high degree of uncertainty due to geopolitical tensions, although the no signs of recession It is a positive aspect.
Main indicators of the Economic Cycle Clock
The BCC is based on three coincident cyclical indicators:
- Growth Cycle Coincident Indicator (GCCI)
- Business Cycle Coincident Indicator (BCCI)
- Acceleration Cycle Coincident Indicator (ACCI)
Growth Cycle Coincident Indicator (GCCI)
In it fourth quarter of 2024, he GCCI increased from 0.94 in October to 0.97 in December, which indicates that the economy remains in a deceleration phasebility
Business Cycle Coincident Indicator (BCCI)
He BCCI remained stable at zero during the fourth quarter of 2024, which confirms the no signs of recessionbility
Acceleration Cycle Coincident Indicator (ACCI)
In it fourth quarter of 2024, he ACCI increased from 0.95 in October to 0.99 in December, which reinforces the confirmation of the current slowdown in economic growthbility
The eurozone economy continues to face a uncertain scenario, although the lack of recessive signs brings some optimism for the coming months.
Fountain: EUROSTAT
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