Article published by José Alberto León Alonso in El Día on 09/13/2015.
The unemployed registered in the Canary Islands in the INEM in the month of August 2015 amounted to 242,649 people, with a decrease of 1,257 people compared to the previous month and of 24,019 people compared to August 2014. Despite the media importance that is erroneously given to it, the registered unemployment statistic is not very relevant for the analysis of the economic situation, since in practice not all Those seeking work register in employment offices, not all those registered are actively seeking employment, as some work in the underground economy and others seek another series of social benefits that require registration. U!
The variation in the number of Social Security affiliates is relevant to verify the monthly evolution of our labor market. The number of affiliates in the month of August 2015 in the Canary Islands increased by 2,252 people compared to the previous month, and by 27,863 people compared to the month of August 2014, reaching the figure of 695,184 affiliates. It is a positive fact, but not as much as it might seem, since the month of August is traditionally positive for employment in the Canary Islands. Thus, only in 2012, fewer jobs were created (1,121 jobs) during that month so far this decade. The growth rate in job creation, measured in year-on-year terms, appears to be “cooling” in recent months, reducing to 4.18% in the month of August from the peak it reached in May (4.51%).
In Spain as a whole, Social Security contributors have been reduced by 134,289 people in August. In that month, Social Security affiliates amounted to 17,180,899, 3.2% more than in the same month last year. In seasonally adjusted terms, those that eliminate distortions in the work calendar, those registered with Social Security suffer a decline of 14,000 people. A piece of information does not make a trend, and during the previous month this same figure was positive, but seasonally adjusted employment has basically remained at the same levels since May, so that job creation also seems to be “cooling” at the national level.
The question is whether it is the rate of job creation that is cooling or it is the economy itself that is doing so. The first would not be anything strange, since what was unusual was the high number of jobs (at the rate of the bubble) that our economy generated with a not so high growth rate (two percentage points below the bubble). The second would be more worrying, since it would imply structural problems that are difficult to solve for our economy. The leading indicators of economic activity continue to show strength. On the one hand, investment in machinery and equipment increases at an increasing rate, which usually leads to strong dynamism in the economy. Likewise, the strong recovery of retail credit (less than one million euros) to companies points in the same direction, as does consumer credit, as well as the economic climate indicator and the consumer confidence index for Spain, which in August reached and exceeded their pre-crisis maximum, reinforcing optimistic expectations. So it seems that it is job creation that cooled in the third quarter, and not so much the economy, or at least, not appreciably. The rate of job creation in the last year was higher than the growth rate of our economy, which meant that labor productivity had been reducing during the last year. Now that dysfunction is beginning to be corrected. The pace of job creation increases in industry (less labor-intensive, but more productive) and decreases in construction and services (more intensive, but less productive). And as Krugman, Nobel Laureate in Economics, said, \”productivity is not everything, but in the long term it is almost everything. A country's ability to improve its standard of living depends almost entirely on its ability to raise output per worker. If the trend continues, we will create employment at a slower rate, but with greater productivity and added value. More sustainable. So welcome the change.
