Article published by José Alberto León Alonso in El Día on 09/21/2015.
the book The accounts and tales of independence by Josep Borrell and Joan Llorach recalls the fable of the milkmaid embodied by the independentists, analyzing their arguments in favor of the independence of Catalonia, and concluding that they have been deceiving the Catalans. To do this, it points out the falsehoods of the pro-independence theses through the compilation of the statements of Mas and Junqueras. \»The stories that have been told using poorly made accounts\». Rigorously describes the different concepts and methods related to the preparation of fiscal balances.
The Generalitat justifies a deficit of 16,000 million euros by calculating it by a very particular method, called the neutralized monetary flow method, and the authors explain how this method overestimates the deficit due to the artificial, unrealistic and inadequate nature of its hypotheses, and that in no way can this figure be assumed as the fiscal benefit that independence would provide, since, for example, it leaves aside the irrefutable fact that an independent Catalonia should finance all the services that it now receives from the State, whether they occur or not from Catalan territory, as is the case of embassies, the army and various central services. The fiscal deficit of Catalonia with respect to the State exists and it is logical that this is the case because the citizens and companies that reside in Catalonia are richer than the average and, therefore, pay more than the average, so that independence would provide a slight fiscal surplus of two or three billion, but from that figure we would have to deduct the costs of independence, the price of State structures and the negative effects on economic activity. As Borrell says in El Periódico: "The thing about us declaring ourselves independent and nothing happens, we are still in Europe, international investors are not distrustful, companies are not relocating... that is a fairy tale. If independence were to be achieved, Catalonia would leave the EU and the euro. The sensible independentists tell you that if that is the price, it cannot be assumed. But since they have gone out of their way to say that Europe will ask Catalonia on its knees to stay..."
Contributing new arguments to those in the book, what is not a fairy tale is that a third of the income and taxes declared by companies in Catalonia have been generated by sales made throughout Spain (in the case of VAT collection) and by the profits obtained throughout the country (through the Corporate Tax –IS–). And the experience of agreed and peaceful secessions indicates that these reduce commercial relations between 25% and 70% between the parts of a country that is fragmenting, in what is known as the “border effect.” In the event of a hypothetical Catalan independence, not only would these sales be reduced, but both the VAT and the IS on the sales and profits of these companies in the rest of Spain would be declared in some other territory of Spain and would not be collected by the Generalitat, so tax revenues and the fiscal balance would be reduced for that reason, probably until it became negative.
Another pro-independence fallacy is to affirm that Catalans are Europeans and cannot be deprived of citizenship, but the reality is that they are Europeans as Spaniards. If they lose Spanish nationality, they lose European nationality. And contrary to what they say, Catalans could not have dual nationality unless Spain agreed to it. The applicable international doctrine establishes that, in the case of a new independent state, the predecessor State and the new one would grant an option to citizens who met a series of conditions (living in the new state or being born in it), to choose nationality. And once the new nationality was acquired, the “old” one would be withdrawn. Nor does it seem reasonable that in a newly created country its population maintains the nationality of the country from which it has separated. It would not be acceptable to Spain if, after the secession of Catalonia, pro-independence Catalans continued to vote in the Spanish general elections.
And no, no one would expel them from Europe, they would exclude themselves. The reality is that anyone who bothers to read the Treaties of the European Union and does not suffer from reading comprehension problems knows that they say that the EU is made up of a nominative list of partners, which includes Spain, that to include Catalonia in that list the Treaty would have to be modified by requesting membership, and that this list is modified unanimously. Therefore, an independent Catalonia would not be included in the European Treaties and would have to request its inclusion through a long procedure that can be vetoed by any member state.
Angry with the economic, political and social crisis, many Catalans have been convinced with false arguments that independence would lead them to an earthly paradise. The imaginary of the independence movement does not stand up to reason and reality, but it has taken over the feelings of a good number of Catalans, clinging to the belief that Catalonia is so important that it will continue in the euro and in the European Union, whatever the Treaties say. The reality is that the economic weight of Catalonia is similar to that of Greece, and it is evident that the possible exit of Greece from the euro and the EU was not a crazy (nor undesirable) idea among the governments and public opinions of half of Europe a few months ago. Rather than breaking European standards. That the ruling class of a troubled country tends to deflect blame onto an external enemy is something often seen, but it is surprising that it continues to be such an effective method of staying in power. Churchill already said it: “It would be a great reform in politics if sanity could spread as easily and as quickly as madness.”
