Article published by José Alberto León Alonso in El Día on 06/19/16.
Engrossed as we are with the new electoral campaign that our politicians have “given us”, the referendum on June 23 on the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union, better known as Brexit (an acronym for the English words (British exit), is going a little unnoticed for Spaniards.
Called by its Prime Minister, David Cameron, as a result of his electoral promise, the United Kingdom's departure from the EU gains strength with each poll as the scheduled date for the referendum approaches. It must be recognized that Cameron is proving to be one of those irresponsible sorcerer's apprentices who from time to time enter the government of countries and who, instead of solving problems, dedicate themselves to creating them, provoking crisis after crisis until one explodes in his face. Thus, the independence referendum in Scotland, which was on the verge of breaking away from the United Kingdom, did not chasten it and decided almost without interruption to call a new referendum, this time to break up the European Union.
The British have always been reluctant to the European integration process. When the germ of the current EU, the European Economic Community (EEC), was created, they responded in 1960 by creating their own free trade area (the EFTA – European Free Trade Association) with the countries that had been left out of it, although little by little six of them (including the United Kingdom) left it to join the EU, much more effective and successful, until there are currently four. Already in 1975, just two years after joining the EU, a referendum was held in the United Kingdom on the country's permanence in the EEC, with a result then favorable to permanence. But British suspicions towards Europe have always been present, which has caused the United Kingdom not to participate in the euro or in the free movement of people in Europe.
What the result of the referendum will be is unknown. The reasons that mobilize voters in referendums on European issues are more related to their feelings of support or aversion towards European integration or to internal political disputes, than to the question itself. In this case, many Britons see it as an opportunity to punish an unpopular prime minister like Cameron, and the campaign exploits Britons' suspicion of immigration and terrorism, in response to which they seek to implement border controls.
The economic impact of a possible departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union is difficult to assess, but in any case negative for everyone. The exit cost on the level of UK GDP ranges between 1% and 5% three years from now, but the impact on people's lives would be much greater. There are 2 million Europeans working in the UK, and 1.2 million Britons working in the rest of the EU. It is not clear what would happen to all of them. If the British government decides to impose restrictions on work permits, as its population seems to want, other countries would follow suit.
In any case, the worst thing is that a long period of instability would begin. Under article 50 of the European treaty, a withdrawal agreement would be negotiated for two years, but the terms would be set unilaterally by the EU, since the country that withdraws from the European club will not participate during the negotiation period. It is a divorce that is not friendly and not fast. The supporters of Brexit They argue that, out of mutual interest, Europe would offer good conditions for the United Kingdom to remain part of the single market, but the political incentives for Europe are the opposite. There are a good number of European citizens dissatisfied with the EU and some rising populist parties eager to blame someone for the recent crisis. If the departure of the United Kingdom (UK) is successful, EU exit referendums would multiply throughout Europe. So what is convenient for Europe is that the British challenge does not come for free, quite the opposite.
It was not only the British who would suffer the consequences of the UK leaving the EU. The European financial sector would be one of the most affected, which explains that Ireland, Malta, Luxembourg, Cyprus and Switzerland would suffer the most. Spain would come right behind them, given the strong presence of Spanish companies in the British market, especially in the banking and telecommunications sectors, and tourism could also be seriously affected, since a strong depreciation of the pound sterling is expected, which would increase the cost of British tourism abroad.
The worst thing is that barely 25% of British people acknowledge having all the information they need to make an informed decision in a matter of such importance as this. To avoid this, perhaps we should follow examples of deliberative democracy such as those of the State of Oregon. Precisely the state that held the first popular consultation in the United States, and the one that has held the most referendums since then, has realized that the consultations are carried out without citizens being properly informed. That is why since 2011 it has been established by law that a panel of citizens review, debate and approve conclusions about popular legislative initiatives that are presented to be submitted to a referendum, interviewing independent experts, as well as groups that support or reject the proposal that is going to be submitted to a referendum. With all this information they prepare a “Citizen Declaration” that highlights the conclusions reached after the debate, and the most important arguments for and against it. This statement is sent to voters in order to provide them with the most impartial nonpartisan information possible on the issue being voted on. Of course they are a century ahead of us.
