we face a second half of the year where the uncertainty mixed with uncertain prospects based on a recovery based on an adequate vaccination rate compatible with the attacks of the different existing strains. In reference to the Canary Islands, the GDP in the first quarter of 2021, registers a quarter-on-quarter decrease in 0.23% in real terms (compared to -0.19% in the fourth quarter), the variation being year-on-year of the -14.15%, a less pronounced fall than the -20.21% with which 2020 closed. However, this negative trend in the regional economy is reflected unevenly in demand indicators, some of them showing signs of a incipient and progressive recovery, after a start to the year weighed down by the unfavorable evolution of the pandemic.
KEYS
The second quarter of 2021 has performed economically better than its namesake for 2020 for a mere quantitative reason, although without accessing a process of recovery of the lost parameters. Even so, the evolution of the sector's figures tourist They are reflected in -15.7% year-on-year in May 2021 related to the entry of national tourists and -79.4% in foreign tourists. Or with a drop in year-on-year collection in June 2021 -4.5% as IGIC.
FORECASTS
Even so, despite the fact that we had already predicted that throughout this year we will witness a uneven evolution from a quarterly perspective, taking into account the evolution of the starting situation, after having experienced a first quarter with a certain year-on-year worsening, the next quarter we will witness a period based on better behavior than that experienced in 2020 to access a final part of the year where the figures will experience a notable improvement, leaving a net balance of GDP growth in 2021 in the range of 5%-6%, depending on the degree of health coverage of the vaccination.
REPORT
For more information, access the full report here: CORPORATION 5 Situation Report 2Q2021U!
